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Intelligence Analysis
A Target-Centric Approach

Fifth Edition


May 2016 | 448 pages | CQ Press
Robert M. Clark’s Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach demonstrates that a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis, while better meeting the needs of the customer. Thoroughly revised to reflect the changes in the constantly shifting landscape of intelligence, the Fifth Edition contains a new chapter that frames the nature of intelligence in 21st century conflicts. The book also accounts for recent events such as the rise of ISIL and the conflict in Ukraine, and contains new examples throughout.  Clark’s practical information and insider perspective create the perfect resource for students and practitioners alike.
 
Chapter 1: Introduction
Why Intelligence Fails  
What the Book Is About  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 2: Intelligence in Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict
Nature of Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict  
Tools of Conflict  
The Conflict Spectrum  
The Function of Intelligence  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Part I: The Analysis Process
 
Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
The Traditional Intelligence Cycle  
Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process  
The Target  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 4: Defining the Intelligence Issue
Statement of the Issue  
The Issue Definition Product  
Issue Decomposition  
Complex Issue Decomposition  
Structured Analytic Methodologies for Issue Definition  
Example: Defining the Counterintelligence Issue  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 5: Conceptual Frameworks for Intelligence Analysis
Analytic Perspectives - PMESII  
Modeling the Intelligence Target  
Modeling Using PMESII  
Using Models in Analysis  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 6: Overview of Models in Intelligence
Creating a Conceptual Model  
Textual Models  
Mathematical Models  
Visual Models  
Advanced Target Models  
Target Model Combinations  
Alternative and Competitive Target Models  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 7: Creating the Model
Existing Intelligence  
Sources of New Raw Intelligence  
Evaluating Evidence  
Combining Evidence  
Structured Augmentation  
A Note About the Role of Information Technology  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 8: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Denial  
Deception  
Defense against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods  
Higher Level Denial and Deception  
Countering Denial and Deception  
Signaling  
Analytic Tradecraft in a World of Denial and Deception  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 9: Systems Modeling and Analysis
Analyzing an Existing System: The Mujahedeen Insurgency  
Analyzing a Developmental System: Methodology  
Performance  
Schedule  
Risk  
Cost  
Operations Research  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 10: Network Modeling and Analysis
Link Models  
Network Models  
Some Network Types  
Modeling the Network  
Analyzing the Network  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 11: Geospatial and Temporal Modeling and Analysis
Static Geospatial Models  
Temporal Models  
Dynamic Geospatial Models  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Part II: The Estimative Process
 
Chapter 12: Predictive Analysis
Introduction to Predictive Analysis  
Convergent and Divergent Phenomena  
The Estimative Approach  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 13: Estimative Forces
Inertia  
Countervailing Forces  
Contamination  
Synergy  
Feedback  
Unintended Consequences  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 14: Scenarios
Why Use Scenarios?  
Types of Scenarios  
Scenario Perspectives  
How to Construct Scenarios  
Indicators and the Role of Intelligence  
A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 15: Simulation Modeling
Types of Simulations  
Creating and Running a Simulation  
Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis  
Decision Modeling and Simulation  
Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Part III: Systems and Network Views of Analysis
 
Chapter 16: A Systems View: Function
Intelligence Research  
Current Intelligence  
Indications and Warning  
What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?  
Limits and Boundaries  
The Pathology of Failures  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 17: A Systems View: Process
Identify the Customer  
Planning the Analysis Project  
Managing Team Efforts  
Preparing the Analytic Product  
Reviewing the Analytic Product  
Evaluating the Analytic Product  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 18: A Systems View: Structure
Topical or Regional Structure?  
The Analyst  
Analytic Teams  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 19: A Network View: The Customer
Overview of Customers  
Analyst-Customer Interaction  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 20: A Network View: The Collector
The U.S. Collection Management Problem  
Interrelating the Issue and Target Model  
Identifying Gaps  
Developing the Collection Strategy  
Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps  
Executing Collection Strategies  
Summary  
Notes  

Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach offers strong, in-depth coverage of the intelligence process, the evaluation of data, and the analysis of the customer. Clark’s work has demonstrated its professional success and acceptance within the academic community and the practicing world of intelligence analysis.”

Ronald Vardy
University of Houston

Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach is a major contributor toward making intelligence analysis a more scientific process. Those involved in behavioral analysis have tended to rely more on intuitive approaches and the historical method for their analyses. With Clark’s text, behavioral analysts can learn the utility and procedures for making their analyses more systematic and scientific. It comprehensively covers modeling and other analytic techniques, as well as the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis and dealing with intelligence customers.”

Michael Collier
Eastern Kentucky University

Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach is a top notch text, written by an expert, and aimed at serious intelligence courses. Clark provides a well-rounded book that touches on all relevant collection and analytical disciplines.”

Carl Wege
College of Coastal Georgia

Clark offers a highly comprehensive and detailed text, that takes the reader from zero knowledge to expert. A core text for all intelligence modules.

Mr Paul Matthews
School of Hospitality, Tourism & Events, University College Birmingham
August 8, 2016
Key features
NEW TO THIS EDITION:
  • A NEW chapter, "Intelligence in 21st Century Conflict," discusses how intelligence must function across the spectrum of modern day conflict.
  • NEW chapters on systems modeling and analysis; network modeling and analysis; and geospatial and temporal modeling and analysis.
  • Three NEW chapters take a systems view of analysis (function, process, and structure).
  • Two NEW chapters take a network view of analysis (the customer and the collector).
  • A NEW appendix on presenting analysis results.
KEY FEATURES:
  • Over 70 tables and figures help illustrate various techniques and models.
  • “Analysis Principles” boxes summarize touchstones of intelligence analysis.
  • Contrasting NIE case studies are examined at the end of the book. 

Sample Materials & Chapters

Chapter 2

Chapter 11


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