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Intelligence Analysis
A Target-Centric Approach

Sixth Edition


July 2019 | 472 pages | CQ Press
Now in its sixth edition, Robert M. Clark's Intelligence Analysis: A Target-centric Approach once again delivers a consistent, clear method for teaching intelligence analysis, demonstrating how a collaborative, target-centric approach leads to sharper and more effective analysis. The book also includes material on the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis and dealing with intelligence customers. Now with end-of-chapter questions to spark classroom discussion, this text combines a practical approach to modeling with his insider perspective, Clark creates an ideal resource for students and practitioners alike.
 
Part I: The Process, the Participants, and the Product
 
Chapter 1: Introduction
Why Intelligence Fails  
What the Book Is About  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder
Nature of Twenty-First Century Conflict  
Tools of Conflict  
The Function of Intelligence  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
The Traditional Intelligence Cycle  
Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process  
The Target  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 4: The Customer
Overview of Customers  
Identifying the Customer  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 5: The Analyst
Critical and Logical Thinking  
Objectivity  
Broad Perspective  
Good Instincts  
The Analyst’s Role  
Analytic Teams  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 6: The Analytic Network
The U.S. National Intelligence Network  
Homeland Security  
Military  
Law Enforcement  
Collaboration and Sharing  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product
Intelligence Research  
Current Intelligence  
Indications and Warning  
What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce?  
Constraints on the Intelligence Product  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Part II: The Analysis Process
 
Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue
Preliminary Questions  
Issue Definition  
Clarification  
Identifying Assumptions  
Focusing  
Issue Decomposition  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 9: Target Models
Modeling the Intelligence Target  
Some Basic Target Models  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 10: The Target Framework
Creating a Target Framework  
Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology  
Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan  
Issue 3: The Monopolitania BW Threat  
Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks  
The Dynamic Framework  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence
Using Target Models for Analysis  
Existing Finished Intelligence  
Sources of Raw Intelligence  
Evaluating Evidence  
Combining Evidence  
Structured Argumentation  
A Note about the Role of Information Technology  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 12: The Information Sources: Filling Gaps
Interrelating the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework  
Identifying Gaps  
Developing the Collection Strategy  
Executing Collection Strategies  
Analyst-Collector Interaction  
Evaluating Collection  
Collection Requirements  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
Denial  
Deception  
Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods  
Countering Denial and Deception  
Signaling  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 14: Gaining Customer Acceptance
Structuring the Message  
Presenting the Message  
Reviewing the Analytic Product  
Customer Interaction  
Aftermath: Dealing with Bad Outcomes  
Summary  
Notes  
 
Part III: Anticipatory Analysis and Modeling
Anticipatory Analysis  
Modeling  
 
Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces
Background Forces  
Synergy  
Causal Models  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology
Convergent and Divergent Phenomena  
The Estimative Approach  
Unintended Consequences  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 17: Scenarios
Why Use Scenarios?  
Scenario Perspectives  
How to Construct Scenarios  
A Scenario Exercise: The Global Future  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis
Systems Analysis Methodology  
Performance  
Process  
Risk  
Cost  
Operations Research  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis
Link Models  
Network Models  
Network Analysis  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis
Static Geospatial Models  
Dynamic Geospatial Models  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling
Types of Simulations  
Creating and Running a Simulation  
Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis  
Decision Modeling and Simulation  
Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis  
Summary  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  
 
Chapter 22: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs
The Yugoslavia NIE  
The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE  
Critical Thinking Questions  
Notes  

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ISBN: 9781544369143
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